The European Commission (EC) lowered its growth forecast in the euro area by six tenths in 2019, up to 1.3%, while for the European Union (EU) it reduced it by four tenths, down to 1.5 %.
The winter macroeconomic forecasts of the EU executive also revise the GDP growth in 2020 in both the nineteen countries that share the single currency (up to 1.6%) and the Twenty-eight (to 1.7%).
“This slowdown was more pronounced than expected last autumn (…), due to the uncertainties of world trade and internal factors of our largest economies,” said the European Commissioner for Financial Affairs, Pierre Moscovici.
Germany would register an expansion of 1.1% in 2019, seven tenths less than in the previous projection. Brussels also reduces the forecast for the second economy, France, to 1.3% to three tenths.
On Italy, whose coalition government between ultra-rightists and anti-system announced to have entered into recession in the last quarter of 2018, the Commission reduces one point its forecast of expansion for 2019, to 0.2%. By 2018, one tenth is reduced to 1%.
Spain, the fourth largest economy in the euro zone, continues to lead growth among the main economies with 2.5% in 2018 and 2.1% by 2019, according to the Commission, which in both cases reviews one tenth of a percent downwards. previous forecast.
The vice president of the community executive Valdis Dombrovskis justified the current forecast in “the commercial tensions and the deceleration of the emerging markets, especially in China”.
“The possibility of a disruptive Brexit creates additional uncertainty,” Dombrovskis said, when the feared scenario of a divorce without an agreement on March 29, against which economic organizations warned, gains strength in the United Kingdom and the European Union.