KPMG foresees that the distribution of cars within a little more than a decade will be quite equitable: electric vehicles of battery (VEB, 30%), hybrids (25%), electric vehicles of fuel cell (VEPC, 23%) and engines of internal combustion (MCI, 23%).
In recent times we have witnessed a regulatory pressure that has rarely been seen around diesel cars, which has been criticized by the sector for the scant scientific basis of the arguments on pollution-regarding gasoline-to which it appeals. At the same time, all of Europe continues its unstoppable path towards the electrification of the vehicle fleet and many cities have begun to cut traffic in the center of their cities to any car that is driven by internal combustion engines. A clear moment of change of paradigm that, nevertheless, throws new questions on the automobile industry.
The first and largest of them is to know what kind of vehicles are what consumers want to buy: if they continue to prioritize the price and autonomy of traditional cars or jump to hybrid and electric. Moreover, when will the ‘sorpasso’ of ‘clean’ cars be produced for gasoline and diesel?
A study by the consultancy KPMG sheds some light on the matter, appealing to the horizon – not so far – that covers from today until 2040. According to this survey, although consumers opt for hybrid vehicles first (followed by those of internal combustion and, finally, electrical), it is expected that the distribution of car manufacturing within a little more than a decade is quite fair: electric vehicles of battery (VEB, 30%), hybrids (25%), electric vehicles of fuel cell (VEPC, 23%) and internal combustion engines (MCI, 23%).
“The automotive industry will depend more than ever on political decisions and regulations, after decades in which the technological agenda has been marked by companies,” says KPMG. “Given the diversity of existing technological options, countries in general, will develop to a greater extent those technologies related to their available resources, thus creating a diverse global ecosystem.”
Thus, the United States is expected to focus on internal combustion engines (ICM) as long as China dominates the e-mobility market. Despite this (or perhaps a reflection thereof), industrial policies in Asia and the United States are apparently much more advanced than in Europe. 83% of Chinese managers and 81% of Americans believe that their country has clear policies in the automotive industry; while in Western Europe, only half of CEOs have that same confidence.